The state of the race
With just over a month to go until the 2026 United States midterm elections, the national picture has tilted firmly in the Democrats' favour. A flurry of September polls shows Democrats holding a double-digit advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, while President Donald Trump's approval rating has sunk to some of the lowest levels of his second term.
The Emerson College national poll, released on September 24, put Democrats at 53 per cent and Republicans at 42 per cent among likely voters — an 11-point Democratic advantage. The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted on September 21 and 22, with a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points. It represents a widening of the gap from Emerson's August survey, when Democrats led 51 to 43.
A separate September poll from NPR, PBS News and Marist University told a similar story. Released on September 23, it showed Democrats ahead 53 per cent to 41 per cent among registered voters — a 12-point lead, up two points from the same poll in May. The survey covered 1,280 respondents on September 14 and 15, with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
"While the generic ballot test doesn't capture nuances of individual races, it's an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement accompanying the release.
Averaging aggregators agree with the direction of travel. RealClear Polling's average of more than 13 pollsters, including Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos and Morning Consult, had Democrats favoured at 50.4 per cent over Republicans at 41.8 per cent. The Silver Bulletin's forecast model, updated on September 28, put the Democrats' likely-voter-adjusted generic ballot lead at D plus 9.2.
A referendum on the president
What stands out most in the new polling is not simply the size of the Democratic lead but its driver: the election is shaping up as a verdict on President Trump himself.
In the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 45 per cent of registered voters said their congressional vote would be mainly "a vote against President Trump" rather than a vote for him. Among independents, 54 per cent described their vote that way, and 80 per cent of Democrats did the same. Among Republicans, 35 per cent said the president did not factor into their vote in November.
Trump's own standing has deteriorated accordingly. The Emerson poll put his approval at 39 per cent, with 58 per cent disapproving — his highest disapproval rating of his second term in that pollster's series. Fifty-six per cent of respondents said Trump had performed worse than expected, compared with 26 per cent who said he had done better than expected.
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 16 to 21 among 1,500 registered voters found Trump at 37 per cent approval and 61 per cent disapproval — one of the weakest showings of his presidency. As of September 28, the RealClearPolitics average had Trump at 38.7 per cent approval and 59.9 per cent disapproval.
The historical parallels are difficult to ignore. The Wall Street Journal's figures place Trump's standing heading into these midterms below the comparable rating recorded by President George W. Bush before the 2006 elections, when Democrats swept to control of both the House and the Senate.
The economy dominates
If one issue is powering the Democratic advantage, it is the economy. In the Emerson poll, 41 per cent of voters named the economy as their most important issue, well ahead of threats to democracy at 17 per cent, immigration at 13 per cent and healthcare at 12 per cent.
Among voters who rank the economy as their biggest concern, Democrats led Republicans on the congressional ballot by 55 to 41 per cent. Sixty per cent said Trump's economic policies were making the economy worse, and in the Wall Street Journal poll, 65 per cent said the economy was not strong.
Prices remain the most visible pressure point. Voters told pollsters they trusted Democrats over Republicans to manage the economy, foreign policy and gas prices — and, very narrowly, immigration. On immigration, 41 per cent said they trusted Democrats while 38 per cent gave Republicans the nod. For Democrats, that represents an 11-point improvement from 2024, when only 30 per cent said they would do better than Republicans on the issue.
The price of petrol is a concrete part of the story. The national average price of a gallon stood at $4.47, according to AAA, marking an 11-cent jump from the previous week and a 38-cent increase from the month before. In the Emerson poll, when voters were asked to rate issues by importance in deciding their November vote, the Iran war ranked first, followed by jobs and tariff policy, with gas prices and immigration tied for fourth.
A coalition shift?
Perhaps the most striking detail in the Emerson data is where the Democratic advantage is coming from. "Independent and Hispanic voters, who broke for President Trump in 2024, support the Democratic candidate by significant margins, 60 per cent to 31 per cent and 64 per cent to 31 per cent, respectively," Kimball said.
Independents were also the backbone of the Marist finding: they favoured Democratic congressional candidates 57 to 32 per cent. A reversal among swing voters who backed Trump two years ago would be a fundamental change in the electoral arithmetic — though pollsters caution that national margins do not translate mechanically into House seats.
The Senate map
Democrats will need more than national mood to take the Senate, where the map has historically favoured Republicans. Yet here, too, the polling carries warning signs for the GOP. The Silver Bulletin's September 28 update noted that Democratic candidates held at least slight polling leads in the six likeliest Senate tipping-point states: Texas (D plus 3.4), Maine (D plus 2.5), Ohio (D plus 4.5), Iowa (D plus 2.0), Michigan (D plus 3.2) and Alaska (D plus 2.4).
The forecasters added their own caveat: polling error is always possible, and it would not take much of it for Democrats to lose the Senate. But the combination of strong Democratic candidates, an unpopular president and persistent inflation — particularly around fuel prices — has left Republicans in an increasingly difficult position.
What history warns
Veteran election watchers will note that the president's party almost always loses seats in midterms, and that polling leads of this size do not guarantee specific outcomes. The 435 House races and the individual Senate contests each have their own candidates, demographics and local dynamics.
Republicans point to precisely that: Senate maths and individual state races still offer a path to maintaining at least partial control of Congress, even if the national environment is bleak. Democrats counter that the breadth of the polling lead, the collapse in Trump's approval and the advantage among independents all point toward a wave.
With polling day just over a month away, both parties know the final weeks matter most. Advertising money is flooding into competitive districts, turnout operations are ramping up, and any late-breaking event — economic or foreign policy — could yet shift the terrain. But as September closed, the numbers told a consistent story: the midterms are becoming a referendum the White House did not want.
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